Quantitative data about societal and economic transformations in the regions of the three Baltic States during the last hundred years for the analysis of historical transformations and the overcoming of future challenges (BALTIC100)

About the project

This project breaks new interdisciplinary ground in the socio-economic history of the Baltic countries, providing for the first time cross-time and cross-country comparable gross domestic product (GDP) data series for all three countries, covering the complete 100 years period since the end of independence wars. Applying a methodology tested in recent research on the economic development of Europe‘s regions since 1900, it will decompose these series down to a regional level to explore trends in the economic and social disparities between regions inside of each Baltic state.

There is a lack of information, based in quantitative date, about societal and economic developments in the Baltic states during the last 100 years. Data is fragmented and often not comparable. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the global crisis caused by Covid-19, the analysis of various past crises with the help of quantitative socio-economic data has become particularly relevant. Such data will allow to better understand the reactions of society and socio-economic processes in the long run in the Baltic states and their regions. Depository of quantitative date will help to understand long-term development trends in the Baltic states, and will be useful both for a better understanding of historical trends and for the development of future regional policies.

The collection and analysis of data for a period of 100 years is necessary in view of the complex reality of history. Different political and economic models have influenced the development of the Baltic states and their regions, and this influence is still being felt. Additional challenges are posed by different interpretations of history in the information space. The tendency to use history as a means of propaganda has grown significantly over the last decade. The collection and analysis of comparative historical data of the Baltic states is important from the perspective of both strategic communication and media literacy. This will make the data available to a wide audience and allow it to be widely used in data-based argumentation.

The aim of the project is to create a depository of quantitative data about societal and economic transformations in the regions of the three Baltic states during the last hundred years and provide a quantitative analysis of the long run trends (since 1920) in regional disparities.

The implementation of the project will include two tasks: (1) creation of data depository with data on economic and social differences between regions of Baltic countries and (2) analysis of long run trends (since 1920) in cross-regional economic and human development disparities. Accomplishing these tasks, the research will be conducted in four directions:

• Demography (data collection, storing and analysis): regional vital statistics, migration, level of urbanization, ageing trends
• Economy (data collection, storing and analysis): regional GDP, impact of changes in the external macroenvironment (Soviet and German occupations, after 2004 – impact of cohesion policy of EU), unemployment, trade turnover, non-financial investment per capita
• Human development (data collection, storing and analysis): education, availability of medical services, municipal expenditure per capita, regional HDI

• Methodology of data analysis, analysis of long run trends (since 1920) in cross-regional economic and human development disparities

For estimation of the regional output of Baltic countries the methodology will be used, which is presently used in the quantitative research on economic development of European regions (Rosés J.R.; Wolf N. (Eds) The Economic Development of Europe's Regions. A Quantitative History since 1900. Abingdon: Routledge, 2019).

The structure of the project's four work packages is based on the chronological principle, each focused on the collection and analysis of data for a specific period. Data are compiled and structured in Work Package 5, while Work Package 6 ensures the establishment of a depository and knowledge transfer.

Implementation period: 01.05.2021 – 30.04.2024

Project funding: 999092,70 EUR

Funding/program: European Economic Area (EEA) Grants, Research and Education, Baltic Research Programme (https://eeagrants.lv/ , https://eeagrants.org/)

Modules (Work Packages)

WP0 Management and coordination of project research activities

WP1 Data collection, analysis: 1920 – 1939 (first independence period)

WP2 Data collection, analysis: 1939 – 1945 (World War II)

WP3 Data collection, analysis: 1945 – 1991 (Soviet occupation period)

WP4 Data collection, analysis: 1991 – 2020 (after restauration of independence)

WP5 Quantitative data analysis, estimations

WP6 Construction of depository, dissemination and communication

Project consortium

Coordinator:

Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, https://va.lv/en

Partners:

	Vilnius University, http://www.vu.lt
	Norwegian School of Economics, https://www.nhh.no/en/
	University of Tartu, https://www.ut.ee/en

Meetings

September 27th-28th, 2021 in Riga and Valmiera. Meeting of the project partners and stakeholders at Ministry of Education and Science, Bank of Latvia, and Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences

International workshop on June 14th-15th, 2022 at Tartu University, Estonia

International workshop on December 1st-2nd, 2022 at Norges Handelshøyskole, Bergen, Norway

International workshop on June 14th, 2023 at Vilnius University, Lithuania

International workshop on March 2024 at Norges Handelshøyskole, Bergen, Norway

Publications

1. Norkus, Z., Jasilionis, D., Grytten, O., Mežs, I., Klesment, M. Mortality Transition in the Interwar Baltic States: Findings from Cross-Country Comparison of New Life Tables. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 2022. Available here.

2. Grytten O. H., Norkus Z., Markevičiūtė J., Šiliņš J. (2022). Can the economic growth of interwar Latvia be estimated by contemporary national accounts? Baltic Journal of Economics. Available here.

3. Norkus, Z., Grytten, O., Šiliņš, J., Klimantas, A. (2022). Benchmarking Latvia’s Economy: A New Estimate of Gross Domestic Product in the 1930s. Cliometrica, Springer Journal. Available here.

4. Norkus, Z. (2022). Handbook of Economic Nationalism, Chapter 6: Varieties of currency nationalization and denationalization, pp. 81-99. Abstract available here; the full chapter available here.

5. Klimantas, A., Norkus, Z., Grytten O. H., Šiliņš, J. (2023). Reinventing Perished “Belgium of the East”: New Estimates of GDP for Inter-war Latvia (1920-1939). Cliometrica, Springer. DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00275-y. Available here [limited number of downloads].

6. Klimantas, A. (2022). Lithuanian economy, 1919-1940: stagnant but resilient. The first interwar GDP time-series estimates and their implications. Scandinavian Economic History Review. Available here.

7. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O., Krūmiņš, G. (2023). New Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Benchmark Estimate for Latvia in 1935. November 28th-29th 2022, Rzeszów, Poland. Proceedings of the Central European Congress of Economic History: Modernization Processes in “Younger Europe”. Available here.

8. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O., Krūmiņš, G. (2023). Demographic Continuity as a Factor in the Post-Communist Restorations. Filosofija. Sociologija. Available here.

9. Norkus, Z., Grytten O. H., Markevičiūtė, J., Šiliņš, J. (2023). A Long-run Perspective on Latvian Regional Gross Domestic Product Inequality, 1925-2016. Baltic Journal of Economics.

10. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J., Grytten, O. H., Ambrulevičiūtė, A. (2023). Regional Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) Disparities in the Interwar and Restored Independent Lithuania: A Long-Run Cross-Time Comparison. Lithuanian Historical Studies.

Conferences

1. Norkus, Z. (2021). Life Expectancy in Lithuania 20th Century: New Research Findings. XV European Sociological Conference “Sociological Knowledges for Alternative Futures”, Barcelona 31 August – 3d September 2021.

2. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J. (2021). Changes in the Cross-Regional Disparities of the Economic Productivity: A Comparison of Baltic Countries (1995-2019). XIII Lietuvos sociologų draugijos konferencija. January 14th.

3. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J. (2022). The Disparity of Economic Productivity between Regions of Lithuania from the Comparative Perspective of Baltic Countries. Conference REGIONS AND SELF-GOVERNMENT IN LITHUANIA – PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS, Lithuanian Academy of Sciences, 29 April 2022. Program: http://www.lma.lt/uploads/news/id1523/2021-04-29_kvietimas_02.pdf

4. Norkus Z., Markevičiūtė J., Grytten, O., Šiliņš J. (2022). Latvia’s Relative Wealth in the 1930s: Measured as GDP per capita in 1935 as Benchmark Year. Baltic Connections: a Conference in Social Science History, June 16th-17th, 2022, University of Jyväskylä, Finland. The program available here:https://www2.helsinki.fi/sites/default/files/atoms/files/baltic_connections_2022_program.pdf

5. Norkus, Z., Markevičiūtė, J. (2022). Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) in the Restored Baltic States: Convergence or Divergence? The Midterm Conference of European Sociological Association (ESA) Research Network 36, Prague 2nd-3rd September 2022, https://www.soc.cas.cz/rn36midterm#prog

6. Norkus, Z., Klimantas, A., Markevičiūtė, J. (2022). Is Economic Growth Possible During a Crisis? The Great Depression of the 1930s in Baltic States. The General Assembly of Lithuanian Academy of Sciences, 20th September 2022, Vilnius, program available at: http://www.lma.lt/uploads/news/id1646/2022-09-20_kvietimas_03.pdf

7. Markevičiūtė, J., Norkus, Z., Grytten, O., Šiliņš, J. (2022). GDP estimate for Latvia in 1935 using SNA2008 and regional disparities. 63th Conference of Lithuanian Mathematical Society on 15-16 June 2022, Kaunas, Vytautas Magnus University.

8. Markevičiūtė J., Norkus Z., Grytten, O., Šiliņš J. (2022). New Benchmark Estimate for Latvia in 1935. Seminar at the Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics of Vilnius University on May 23rd, 2022. http://www.lmd.mif.vu.lt/lietuvos-matematiku-draugijos-seminaras-31/

9. Norkus, Z. (2022). New Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Benchmark Estimate for Latvia in 1935. November 28th-29th 2022. Central European Congress of Economic History. Modernization Processes in "Younger Europe", Poland, https://congressofmodernization.pl

10. Norkus, Z., Klimantas, A., Markevičiūtė, J. (2022). Celebrating 100th Anniversary of Lithuanian University and Facing New Economic Crisis: The Pecularities of the Great Interwar Economic Crisis (1931-1935) in Lithuania, XIV Conference of Lithuanian Sociological Society "Universities, Sociology, and Civil Society Facing the Crises", 02.12.2022, Kaunas University of Technology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts. https://lsdkonferencija2022.ktu.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/426/2022/11/LSD_pilna-programa-1129.pd

11. Markevičiūtė, J., Norkus, Z., Klimantas, A. (2022). Latvia’s Regional Disparities: Comparison of Interwar Period with Modern Latvia. Data Analysis Methods fo Software Systems (DAMSS), 13th Conference, Druskininkai, Lithuania, Hotel „Europa Royale“, December 1st – 3rd, 2022. Program: https://www.mii.lt/damss/index.php/program/oral-presentations

12. The 15th Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe (CBSE) “Turning Points: Values and Conflicting Futures in the Baltics”, 15th-17th June 2023, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania. Panel “REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES IN THE BALTIC STATES IN 100 YEARS: History, Memory, Identity”. The program available here.

13. Osis, K., Krūmiņš, G. (2023). Quantitative Data about Societal and Economic Transformations in the Regions of the Three Baltic States – Data Acquisition Approach. E³UDRES² Citizen Science Conference, 29th-30th June 2023, Setúbal (Portugal).

14. Session “Economic growth and regional disparities in the Baltic countries (1920-2020)”, 15th European Historical Economics Society (EHES) Conference. Vienna, 1 & 2 September 2023.

15. Mežs, I. (2023). Language proficiency of the population of Latvia in census data (1920-1989). The international conference “Language and Power” dedicated to the National Language Day, 20.10.2023. Riga: Museum of Occupation in Latvia.

16. Krūmiņš, G. (2023). EEA/Norway BRP programme, a mid-term conference on October 18th-19th, 2023 in Riga.

17. Markevičiūtė, J., Norkus, Z. (2023). Statistical Estimation of the Economic Differences across Regions of Interwar Lithuania. 64th Conference of Lithuanian Mathematical Society, Vilnius university, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, 21.06.2023.

18. Markevičiūtė, J., Norkus, Z. (2023). Celebrating the 100th Anniversary of the Unification of Klaipėda Region and Lithuania: Cross-Regional Economic Productivity Disparities in 1923-1925 and after the Restoration of Independence. 15th annual conference of Lithuanian Sociological Association, Klaipėda University, 6.-7.10.2023.

News

Scientists from the Baltic states and Norway have started building a database of information on the Baltic states including gross domestic product (GDP) figures that will cover the past 100 years.

In May 2021, Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences (hereinafter – ViA) with partners from Universities of Tartu and Vilnius as well as the Norwegian School of Economics began working on an ambitious research project within the framework of the Baltic Research Program. The project “Quantitative data about societal and economic transformations in the regions of the three Baltic States during the last hundred years for the analysis of historical transformations and the overcoming of future challenges” (BALTIC100)” will preserve quantitative data by creating a data repository reflecting social and economic transformations in the three Baltic regions over the last hundred years in order to provide a quantitative analysis of a long-term development trends in the region since 1920.

The project leader is Gatis Krūmiņš, a leading researcher at ViA. His explanation concerning the topicality of the project: “We have managed to gather a strong, interdisciplinary team of scientists from the Baltics and Scandinavia that will work to increase the knowledge base concerning our countries. And this is not just a question of economics. This knowledge will allow us to analyze historical events which are still interpreted tendentiously by various parties for various reasons. For example, events in the Baltic states during the occupation of the USSR."

The project involves experienced researchers from Estonia (Olaf Mertelsmann and Martin Klesment, University of Tartu), Lithuania (Zenon Norkus, Vilnius University) and Norway (Ola Honningdal Grytten, Norwegian School of Economics), as well as young scientists who will develop their doctoral dissertations during the project. A statistical data repository will be created, where data series on demographic and socio-economic development indicators will be available up to the regional level. This repository will serve as an open source of reliable information for planning and forecasting different scenarios in regional policy-making as well as for media literacy and strategic communication needs. The project plans to prepare a collective monograph and eight high-quality research papers to be published in international publishing houses.

The Baltic100 project is one of the projects of the Baltic Research Program financially supported by the European Economic Area (EEA) grants. The implementation of the project started on May 1, 2021, with funding in the amount of 999092.70 euros available until 2024.