Day 1: Individual Research Reports
Session 1: Social Exclusion, Poverty, and Social Expenditure
Distributional impact assessment of recent changes to old-age pensions, social benefits and taxes in Lithuania. Jekaterina Navickė, Vitalija Gabnytė-Baranauskė
Abstract. Assessing the distributional impact of policy reforms is a crucial component of the policy planning and implementation cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive follow-up to the 2021 study done by the authors on nowcasting poverty and inequality in the context of economic growth and Covid-19 pandemic in Lithuania. Here we extend the analysis to the period of 2021-2024. We examine the impact of recent changes to pensions, social benefits and direct taxes following the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on key distributional indicators such as the at-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP), income inequality (measured by the inter-quintile ratio (S80/S20) and the Gini coefficient), and a nationally applied measure of absolute poverty. The analysis utilizes the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. Results indicate a consistent decline in AROP and income inequality in Lithuania between 2021 and 2024, primarily due to adjustments in old-age pensions, rather than changes in direct taxes, social insurance contributions or other social benefits. However, these adjustments only partially mitigate the effects of high inflation. As a result, the absolute poverty rate is estimated to exceed its 2021 levels by 2-4 percentage points between 2022 and 2024.
Background papers:
- Gabnytė, V., Čižauskaitė, A. and Navickė, J. (2021). “Nowcasting poverty and inequality in the context of economic growth and Covid-19 pandemic in Lithuania”, Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 60, pp. 8–21. https://doi.org/10.15388/LJS.2021.26443 .
- Navicke, J., Rastrigina, O., Sutherland, H. (2013). Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach. Social Indicators Research. Springer: 119 (1), p. 101-119 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0491-8 .
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Navickė, J. (2020). Factors behind the changes in income distribution in the Baltics: income, policy, demography. Journal of Baltic Studies, 51(2), p.137-157. https://doi.org/10.1080/01629778.2020.1728353 .
Basic needs, absolute poverty and benefit non-take-up: method and estimation.
Vitalija Gabnytė-Baranauskė
Abstract. The objective of presentation is to shed a light on methodologies employed in the determination of the national poverty threshold (absolute poverty) and the estimation of benefit non-take-up rates in Lithuania. The measurement of absolute poverty in Lithuania is predicated on the Minimum Consumption Needs Basket (MCNB), which encompasses essential food and non-food expenditures. The basic food costs account for the minimal nutrition requirements, while the non-food costs are appraised relative to actual consumption patterns observed within the population The MCNB serves as a benchmark for the calculation of basic social amounts that underpin social benefits in Lithuania. The methodology for estimating benefit non-take-up leverages data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and compares these findings with outputs derived from the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. This approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of discrepancies between reported benefit receipt and model-simulated entitlement. The presentation will portray the outcomes of the benefit non-take-up analysis, with particular emphasis on cash social assistance (CSA) benefits, contextualized within the framework of CSA system reforms in Lithuania.
Background papers:
- Navickė, J., Čižauskaitė, A. and Užgalė, U. (2019) “Basic Needs and Absolute Poverty in Lithuania: Method and Estimation”, Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, 58(1), pp. 26-38. doi:10.15388/LJS.2019.16668.
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Gabnytė V., Vencius T., & Navickė J. (2020). The Benefit non-take-up in the Context of Cash Social Assistance Reform in Lithuania. Socialinė Teorija, Empirija, Politika Ir Praktika, 21, 96-121. https://doi.org/10.15388/STEPP.2020.25
Evaluating the progressivity and level of social expenditure in Lithuania. Nerijus Černiauskas
Abstract. Lithuania’s household income inequality is among the highest in the European Union (EU) and social transfers and insurance contributions could reduce it. But as of yet little empirical work has been carried out to explain why inequality is relatively large, how it changed over time or how much does social transfers and insurance contributions affected it. Therefore, using a number of decomposition techniques we show that social transfers and insurance contributions influenced the size and the dynamics of income inequality in Lithuania in the period of 2007-2015, but less so than in other EU countries.
Background papers:
- Černiauskas, N., & Čiginas, A. (2020). The effect of social transfers and insurance contributions on income inequality in Lithuania (Measurement and decomposition of Lithuania’s income inequality. Baltic Journal of Economics, 20(2), 139–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2020.1780693 .
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Černiauskas, N., Sologon, D. M., O’Donoghue, C., & Tarasonis, L. (2022). Income inequality and redistribution in Lithuania: The role of policy, labor market, income, and demographics. Review of Income and Wealth, 68, S131-S166. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12546.
Session 2: Family, Gender, Birth
The short run effects of childbirth on parents’ earnings in the Baltics.
Nerijus Černiauskas
Abstract. Having a child can have a heavy toll on parents' earnings, especially in the first years after childbirth, with mothers often being more affected than fathers. This is particularly true in the three Baltic states, with relatively generous parental leave benefits compared to the EU and norms encouraging mothers to care for children. I carry out an event study to estimate the effect of having a child on the earnings of both genders and find that the earnings of females reduce by half in the first calendar year after childbirth and by 20% to 33% in the second, while male earnings do not change in either period. This results in a widening earnings gap in the Baltics, more so than in several comparison countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway), in the first two years after the birth of the first child.
Background paper:
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Černiauskas, N. (2023). The short run effects of childbirth on parents’ earnings in the Baltics. Baltic Journal of Economics, 23(1), 45–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2023.2187946 .
The probability of poverty after childbirth and divorce in Europe: the role of social stratification and tax-benefit policies. Jekaterina Navickė
Abstract. This presentation looks at the effects of tax-benefit systems and social stratification determinants on the probability of poverty among mothers after childbirth and divorce/separation. The analysis was carried out for twelve EU countries, which represent a variety of welfare regimes providing different degrees of defamilialisation. We applied the stress-testing methodology using microsimulation techniques as proposed by Atkinson (2009) and carried out a regression analysis of the simulated results. We show that the degree of income replacement provided by the welfare state is higher for childbirth than for divorce. Countries with low post-childbirth poverty include those with an explicit pro-natalist orientation and socio-democratic regimes. High post-childbirth poverty rates are found in pro-traditional and South European conservative countries, and especially in the liberal regimes. The same is true for the post-divorce poverty rates. Moreover, our findings confirm that the mother's occupational class has a statistically significant effect for predicting poverty in the case of both events, with a stronger social gradient in case of divorce. Cross-country variation in the social gradient for post-childbirth poverty was insignificant. For post-divorce poverty we find weaker social class effects in the highly defamilialised welfare systems (Scandinavian countries and France) and stronger social class effects in the UK and the post-socialist countries.
Background paper:
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Popova, D., Navickė, J. (2019) The probability of poverty for mothers after childbirth and divorce in Europe: The role of social stratification and tax-benefit policies. Social Science Research, 78: 57-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.10.007
Session 3: Aging, Health, Retirement
To work or not to work: factors affecting bridge employment beyond retirement in Lithuania. Kristina Zitikytė
Abstract. This presentation investigates bridge employment beyond retirement, as nowadays it is one of solutions often mentioned to stabilize pension systems in the context of an aging population. The aim of this presentation is to identify individual, financial, and other factors that influence retirees to work beyond retirement in Lithuania. This research was done using unique administrative Lithuanian data, allowing to analyze post-retirement employment in Lithuania for the first time. The sample consists of 26,000 new old-age pension recipients from 2015 to 2017. By applying binary models of the probability of being employed beyond retirement, it is found out that a greater acquired retirement record, a higher average wage before retirement, and living in a bigger city with a higher employment rate were positively associated with accepting bridge employment, while a higher sickness rate, higher old-age pension, and earlier receipt of an unemployment benefit were inversely related to accepting such employment. Moreover, being a professional or manager increases the likelihood of bridge employment in comparison to unskilled workers. This probability increases even more if a person works in the public sector. Finally, some social groups were excluded, finding that widows with disabilities or widowed women with worse health are not likely to work beyond retirement and are consequently under a bigger risk of poverty. To sum up, retirees who should stay in the labor market in their old age because of their bad financial situation are less likely to do it. This suggests that persons with bigger needs, lower-skilled workers, and women deserve particular attention in labor market reforms.
Background paper:
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Zitikytė, K. (2020) “To Work or not to Work: Factors Affecting Bridge Employment Beyond Retirement, Case of Lithuania”, Ekonomika, 98(2), pp. 33–54. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2019.2.3
The role of unmet healthcare needs in mental health among older adults in Europe. Olga Zamalijeva
Abstract. Demographic ageing in many countries all over the world is a megatrend that is for the most part determined by low birth rates and extended life expectancy. However, extended life expectancy does not necessary results in extended healthy life years and people in later life have increased demand for healthcare. These circumstances result in an unprecedented and substantial strain on the healthcare system that in many instances is no longer able to fulfil the healthcare needs in a timely manner. It is also evident that in case of postponement or refusal of medical help the health of the patient is likely to deteriorate, which often times results in irreversible complications and other negative health outcomes. However, it is important to focus not only on the consequences from the biomedical perspective, but also to analyze the impact that limited access to health care may have on the personal level, especially on mental health of older adults. During this presentation we will explore results of the analysis stemming from SHARE data about how unmet healthcare needs may be related to psychological consequences among older adults. We will also discuss various explanations for the connections established and possible solutions to minimize distress.
Background paper:
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Eimontas, J., Gegieckaitė, G., Zamalijeva, O., & Pakalniškienė, V. (2022). Unmet Healthcare Needs Predict Depression Symptoms among Older Adults. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(15), 8892. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19158892 .
Healthy and active aging? Aging concepts, responsibility and tensions of personal practices in Lithuania and the EU. Ugne Gudžinskaitė
Abstract. This presentation outlines a research plan for a doctoral project that has just begun. The project aims to explore the concept of individual responsibility in maintaining health, with a focus on health and aging policies within the EU and Lithuania. The central idea is to examine how policies promoting active and healthy aging correspond to personal health views and practices, especially in aging populations, and the societal expectations tied to self-management of health which often disregard structural inequalities and access limitations. By analyzing the intersection of health policy, social structures, and individual experiences, this research seeks to provide a critical perspective on the balance between individualism and collective responsibility in public health in the context of aging societies.
Day 2: Frontier of International Comparative Research on Social Security
Session ４: On Social Policy in Japan and Lithuania
Session 5: Demography in Japan and Lithuania
Session 6: On comparative and interdisciplinary research
Combining social and biomedical perspectives: the differences in well-being and social participation across multimorbidity patterns. Olga Zamalijeva
Abstract. The burden of chronic health conditions has drastically increased worldwide and these effects are even more evident in European countries (WHO, 2020). Moreover, multimorbidity, that is defined by presence of 2 or more diseases, is a concern for nearly half of adults by the age of 50. Different diseases manifest differently, thus their combinations may result in unique pathology requiring complex diagnostic and treatment approaches on behalf of the healthcare specialist. At the same time long-term conditions are introducing specific demands on an individual level, as health maintenance mostly falls on the shoulders of the patient, resulting in treatment burden even in cases when the illness itself is mostly asymptomatic. Apart from metabolic syndrome other combinations of long-term conditions are still being researched and their impact on patient’s everyday life, well-being and social participation is yet to be established. In this presentation we will discuss the results of a latent class analysis of chronic conditions available in SHARE data and the differences in well-being and social participation across multimorbidity patterns. We will also explore possible practical implications and policy recommendations, highlighted by these results.
Eco-social State in the European Union: The Relationship Between the Social and Climate Policy of the Member States. Ulijona Kaklauskaitė [remote]
Abstract. This article analyzes the relationship between the social and climate policies of the European Union member states and examines the concept of the eco–social state. In the climate crisis era, the need for a close link between social and climate policies is particularly acute. The European Green Deal and other EU strategies reflect a political agenda with a specific interest in social and ecological goals. We aim to answer whether more significant state efforts in the social field are related to a similarly more substantial commitment in climate policy or whether a greater focus on one means less attention on another.
On a theoretical level, we discuss the challenges of climate change for social policy and present the concept of climate justice. The similarities and differences between the ecological and the welfare state are also examined. We argue that the concept of climate justice highlights the phenomenon of a double and even triple injustice on a global level, which requires joint efforts in spheres of social and climate policy. Eco-social state combines social and environmental institutions intending to ensure welfare and sustainability and thus complements the traditional concept of the welfare state. The Koch-Fritz (2014) classification, which distinguishes between the established, deadlocked, emerging, and failing eco-social states, is presented in the paper and used for the empirical analysis.
The empirical part of the paper employs non-parametrical correlation and hierarchical cluster analysis. The former allows for exploring the links between the ecological and social indicators. The latter enables countries to be grouped according to social and climate indicators and compared to the traditional classification of welfare states and Koch-Fritz models of eco-social states. The analysis is based on social and climate indicators of the Europe 2020 strategy. The study found that countries that provide relatively more significant funding for traditional social problems also perform better in climate change adaptation and mitigation policies by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an effort–sharing sectors and final energy consumption. We show that clusters of the EU member states in terms of social and climate indicators (eco–social state models) are very similar to their membership in the traditional welfare states’ classification.
Moreover, social democratic welfare states are better prepared to address climate change than countries representing other types of welfare states. Thus the analysis confirms the social democratic welfare states as established eco–social states, while the conservative-corporate and liberal welfare states can indeed be called deadlocked eco–social states with average results. We show, however, that Lithuania, together with other Eastern European and Southern European countries, fluctuates on both the best and the worst social and climate change mitigation outcomes. Hence those should be attributed to a group with the mixed results and can be named as failed-emerging eco-social states.
Day 3: The Frontier of Cross-Country and Interdisciplinary Research on Social Security
Session 7: NTA and EUROMOD
EUROMOD: Tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union. Nerijus Černiauskas
Abstract. This session is an introduction to EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union that enables researchers and policy analysts to calculate, in a comparable manner, the effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes and work incentives for the population of each country and for the EU as a whole. Cross-country comparability is enabled by coding the policy systems of the EU Member States according to a common framework based on a standard set of modelling conventions. The EUROMOD platform is highly flexible but also organised, documented, validated and transparent. Underpinning the model is the purpose-built software comprising a user-friendly interface, supplemented by extended functionalities (plugins and add-ons) for special purpose analysis. The software is used in many country-specific models around the world.
Session 8: Other micro-data for international comparisons
European statistics and comparative survey data. Vitalija Gabnytė-Baranauskė, Jekaterina Navickė
Abstract. This presentation aims to provide a comprehensive overview of key European surveys that are instrumental in generating comparative statistical data. The focus will be on the following major surveys: the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), the Household Budget Survey (HBS), the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the European Social Survey (ESS), and the European Values Study (EVS). Each of these surveys plays a crucial role in capturing various dimensions of socio-economic and cultural landscapes across Europe. By using data from these surveys, researchers and policymakers can gain a nuanced understanding of European socio-economic trends and cultural dynamics, ultimately guiding informed decision-making and fostering comparative studies.
Using administrative records for analysis and research: possibilities and challenges. Ugnė Gudžinskaitė, Kristina Zitikytė
Abstract. The presentation will explore Lithuania's approach to managing administrative records for analysis, research, and social policy. Focusing on the State Data Governance Information System (VDV IS), the talk will show how Lithuania has implemented technological solutions to manage, integrate, and utilize data from various state information systems and registers. The VDV IS, often referred to as the “State Data Lake”, operates on the Palantir Foundry platform, facilitating centralized data processing and enabling wide spectre of applications. Experience of Lithuania may provide valuable insights for both researchers and policymakers into the challenges and opportunities surrounding data access, management, privacy, and cross-sector collaboration within a centralized data ecosystem. This system comprises over 130 actively used administrative and other state data sources, including main economic, social, health and other administrative records, exemplified by reuse of health data, a detailed list of data sources and a beta-version of open data catalog.
Session 9: SHARE and JSTAR
The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE): limitations and opportunities. Olga Zamalijeva, Antanas Kairys
Abstract. The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is an ex-ante harmonized longitudinal, multicultural and multidisciplinary research that has been running in Europe for over two decades. During that time around 160 thousand respondents have been interviewed and more than 600 thousand interviews have been conducted. As a research infrastructure consortium SHARE covers 27 European countries and Israel. One of the biggest advantages is that the data collected by SHARE is used by almost 20 thousand researchers all over the world and it enables in-depth analyses in fields like demography, economics, epidemiology, gerontology, psychology, public health, sociology, etc. In addition to that, SHARE data generates research on critical ageing issues like dementia, multimorbidity and heath maintenance, crisis impact, and more. By providing the stakeholders with reliable and comparable data SHARE not only facilitated the development of data-driven policy recommendations, but also the longitudinal design allows the assessment of short- and long-term effects of implemented policies. Despite being one of the most successful social research infrastructures in Europe it still has its limitation and there is always room for growth, this encourages the SHARE team to constantly work on conceptual improvements and methodological innovations.